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Asia is the largest and most populous
Continent in the world. Along with the economic development
of Japan, Southeast Asia, China and India since the 1950s,
Asia is becoming one of the three greatest global economic
regions, at the same level with Europe and North America.
It plays a more and more important role in the world economic
system. Although there occurred a financial storm, East
Asia was always the area with the most active economic development
and highest increment speed in the 1990s. From a medium-term
or long-term point of vies, East Asia will become the most
important arena for the world economy entering into the
great competitive age.
Among Europe, North America, East Asia and other main economic
regions in the world, only East Asia developed with high
average annual speed of more than 7% in the whole 1990s.
The GDP of East Asia was only US$ 100 billion in the later
1960s; however, it reached up to US$ 2400 billion in the
later 1990s. It is 8% of the world GDP in 1997. In respect
of commodity trade, the total trade volume of East Asia
in 1970 is less than US$ 20 billion, which was only 5% of
world trade volume;' while in 1999, the total export value
reached up to US$ 970 billion and import value US$ 850 billion,
which were 18% and 15% of world volume respectively. In
respect of international capital inflow, East Asia witnessed
a high-speed increase in the early 1990's. In 1998, the
direct investment absorbed was already 515 of the total
volume invested directly by the USA, Japan and European
Communities Countries to the developing countries. The White
Paper regards East Asia as the central area of world economic
development in the last decade of the 20th century. This
is mainly attributable to the ever increasingly rapid progress
of trade liberalization in East Asia, the entrance of European
and American enterprises into East Asia mainly in the form
of acquisition and merger; as well as the rising up of China,
which is practicing socialist market economy.
Furthermore, along with the rising of Asian
economy, its information industry and IT (application) are
also developing rapidly. India has already been a major
exporter in software worldwide. Singapore and Malaysia are
on the way to the second wave of information age. Thailand,
which started a little later, is beginning to establish
a software development base. China is also accelerating
the software development while promoting actively the development
of hardware industry. Recently, the demand growth for personal
computer (PC) on international market is slowing down and
the price of high-tech share is suffering a serious setback.
However, the main export item for Asian economic recovery
is the products of information science and technology, so
that the development of information science and technology
is still the main driving force to recover Asian economy.
At the same time, the E-Commerce is expanding rapidly along
with the development of IT industry and Internet. With certainty,
the expanding of E-Commerce will bring a completely new
innovation to circulation and production fields. It is estimated
by experts that currently the E-Commerce transaction volume
in the Asia-Pacific region will expand with an annual growth
rate of 100%, and it will reach US$300 billion within three
years.
1. Current Situation and Characteristics
of the Asian Telecomm Operating Industry Development
1.1 Continually Improved Status in the World
The Asia-Pacific region has a population of more than 3.6
billion. It is the largest market of communication products
and service in the world. The 1990s is the most important
period for the communication industry development in this
region. During the past 10 years, the number of telephone
users has recorded two fold increase and is already above
300 million at present; and the number of mobile phone users
increased from 0 to 165 million.
The telephone occupancy per capita in the Asia-Pacific region
witnessed a rapid rising trend in the 1990s, the most outstanding
countries of which are China and India. In China, the number
of fixed telephone users in 1984 was only 2.8 million and
the fixed telephone occupancy per capita was only 0.25%.
Ten years later the number of telephone users increased
to 27 million; and the telephone occupancy per capita reached
10%, which was higher than the average level of 8% in the
Asia-Pacific region. Moreover, the number of mobile phone
users increased from 1.5 million in the early 1995 to 43
million in the early 2000. At the beginning of 2000, the
mobile phone occupancy per capita in Japan and USA was 49%
and 32% respectively, while that in China was only 3.4%.
In India, the number of fixed telephone users in 1990 was
only 5 million and the fixed telephone occupancy per capita
was 0.59%. By the end of 1999, the number of fixed telephone
users increased to 25 million; the fixed telephone occupancy
per capita increased by fold five and reached 2.56%. In
the mobile phone market, along with the introduction of
telephone fees prepaid, the number of mobile phone users
in India will increase substantially and the number of Internet
users is also on the rising trend. According to the statistics
of Nua Internet Surveys, the number of Internet users increased
from less than 1 million in May 1999 to 4 millions in March
2000.
Looking at the whole Asia, the number of fixed telephone
users in 1995 was 159 million, which was only 4.1% of the
aggregate population in this region. While at the beginning
of 2000, the number of telephone users in Asia was already
more than 300 million. Moreover, only within one year of
1999, the newly increased number of mobile phone users in
the Asia-Pacific region was above 50 million, which was
twice as much as the newly increased number of fixed telephone
users during the same period. At present, the number of
mobile phone users has already exceeded that to fixed telephone
users in Kampuchea, Hong Kong (China), Japan and Korea.
Therefore, ITU predicted that in this region the number
of mobile phone users would exceed that of Internet users
in the Asia-Pacific region has also increased rapidly. According
to the statistics of Nua Internet Surveys, the number of
Internet users in the Asia-Pacific region was already near
90 million by the end of July 2000. Up to 30 June 2000,
the Internet users in China already reached 16.9 million.
If keeping the current speed of increase, it is certain
that the number of Internet users in China will exceed that
in Japan within two years.
In 2000, the sales amount in Asian telecomm market reached
US$ 400 billion, which accounts for 20% of that on global
telecomm market. At the same time, since the telecomm infrastructure
in the whole Asia is still weak, the telecomm industry is
still being developed rapidly. Especially along with the
continuous development of telecomm technology, the new telecomm
services arise ceaselessly. Internet and mobile communication
services become a new hot spot of the whole Asian telecomm
market developing with high speed. In the mid-2000, there
will be 150 million mobile users on the mobile phone market.
According to the investigation of DCI Inc., the data services,
including DDN, Frame Relay (FR), ATM and Internet, were
increasing continuously. Among them, ATM and FR were increasing
with fastest speed. It was estimated that from 1995 to 1999,
the annual accumulative increased income was 77% for FR
services and 69% for ATM services. According to the study
of VS Group, the annual accumulative growth of FR reached
98% in the Asia-Pacific region, where is the region with
the fastest growth speed globally. In the whole Asia, the
quantity demanded for data services is very large. The demands
of new technology and users bring a new opportunity for
telecomm service suppliers. In the coming four years, the
3G service market in Asia will reach US$ 50 billion.
The development of the telecomm industry in the Asia-Pacific
region has a bright future. The governments of the countries
in Asia attach great importance to the economic and social
efficiency brought by the telecomm industry. They consented
to enhance the service force of the telecomm industry. Therefore,
in the coming decade the Asia-Pacific region will become
the largest telecomm market in the world.
1.2 Accelerated Opening Progress of Telecomm
Market and Intensified Market Competition
Since the 1980s, the global competition of world telecomm
market is more and more intense. The main developed countries
in the world introduce the competition into their domestic
telecomm markets, breaking the monopoly and relaxing the
control. At the same time, these countries also support
their domestic telecomm enterprises to realize the multi-industry
and multinational reorganization, so as to seize the international
market opportunities.
Under this background as well as facing with the opportunity
and challenge of telecomm market development, some countries
in Asia began one after another to reform their traditional
telecomm management pattern, while establishing independent
telecomm management and opening the telecomm market in a
planned way. In 1979, the Philippines became the first country
in the Asia-Pacific region to establish a Telecomm Administrative
Bureau. 15 years later, Hong Kong took after the Philippines
in 1993. After that, 9 countries and regions in the Asia-Pacific
region established independent telecomm administrative agencies:
Mongolia and Pakistan established Telecomm Administrative
Bureaus in 1996; India and Sri Lanka in 1997l Nepal in 1998;
and Bhutan, Malaysia and Singapore in 1999. In addition,
Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Brunei, Kampuchea, Iran, Israel,
Korea, Laos, Thailand and other countries also planned to
establish independent Telecomm Administrative Bureau. The
establishment of independent telecomm administrative agency
is conductive not only to the elimination of unfair competition
but also to the offering of better services to users.
During this progress, the telecomm markets in some Asian
countries are opening up gradually; the merger wave of the
companies within this industry is all the rage for a time;
the offering of network service is becoming the main point
of development. According to proposal put forward by the
Singaporean government in 2000, Singapore will fully open
telecomm market; cancel the restriction that the shares
held by foreign businessmen in the telecomm industry can
not exceed 49%; attract foreign businessmen to enlarge investment
in its domestic IT and telecomm industries. Indian government
is planning to open up its telecomm market; permit foreign
investors to establish sole foreign-funded ventures to operate
in the Indian telecomm industry, so as to change the situation
that the telecomm industry is mainly monopolized by the
state-owned corporations. In order to be in an invincible
position in future competitions, Malaysia telecomm corporations
are looking for foreign partners with abundant strength,
so as to obtain advanced technology and management experience.
This can also be seen from the recent actions of China Telecomm
and China Unicom. At the same time, the progress of China's
entry into WTO would certainly further accelerate the reorganization
and combination of enterprises. In addition, the market
operation is more and more difficult; the competition is
more and more intense; the cost inflation of user's equipment
occurs ceaselessly; the income of traditional long-distance
telecomm business decreases continually; the 3G mobile communication
is approaching day by day, all of these have forced both
the new and the old operating carriers to find strategic
partners to solve problems together, to go international
and to face up to the global integration of telecomm.
At the same time of opening telecomm markets by the Asian
countries, the progress for the combination and reorganization
inside the telecomm industries of Asian countries has also
been accelerate. In the Philippines, Long Distance Telephone
Corporation amalgamate with Sumate Telecomm Corporation
at the end of last year, by which it kept the hegemony position
inside its country. After 2000, Global Telecomm Corporation
declared to amalgamate with Island Telecomm, so as to form
the second largest corporation inside the Philippines Global
Telecomm and Island Telecomm are shared by Singapore Telecomm
Co. and German Telecomm Co. respectively. Therefore, after
amalgamation, it nor only has more abundant assets, but
also can accelerate the technology upgrading and face up
to the challenges from other multinational corporations.
In Hong Kong, PCCW purchase Hong Kong Telecomm Corporation.
By defeating its powerful rival-Singapore Telecomm, PCCW
signed an agreement with British Cable and Wireless Limited
on the acquisition of Hong Kong Telecomm. After amalgamation,
the market value of the new corporation would exceed US$
70 billion.
In recent years, facing the tremendous market of Asian telecomm,
some multinational corporations forestalled to occupy Asian
markets, which makes the market competition more and more
intense. To develop the telecomm markets, American Telegraph
and Telephone Co., British Telecomm, Motorola, German Telecomm
Corporation, etc. invested billion of US$ in Asia. Moreover,
there were also many international network corporations
flying over into Asia. In the future, there would be more
multinational corporation racing to occupy Asian markets
of mobile phone, telecomm infrastructure construction, international
long-distance call service, as well as network.
1.3 Telecomm Infrastructures Are Still
Weak; and the Regional Development Differences Are More
and Moore Distinct
Asian telecomm is developing rapidly. However, except few
countries, the infrastructures of the whole telecomm industry
are still very weak as compared with the developed countries.
Up to 2000, in Asia (except Japan), the telephone occupancy
per capita was only 6%; personal computer occupancy 1%;
mobile phone occupancy 2%; and Internet user infiltration
rate 1%, which were far behind those of other continents
as shown in the figure below:
Although the infrastructures of Asian telecomm are lagging
behind, due to the very large population and the rapid development
in recent years, the market scale of Asian telecomm still
plays a very important role in the world and has great growth
potential. Taking Internet users for example, although the
Internet user infiltration rate in Asia was only 1%, the
Internet users already reached 45 million by the year 2000.
In addition, in recent years the number of Internet users
in Asia has increased at a speed of 20 points above average
global level as shown in the following figure:
1.4 New Telecomm Businesses in Asia Are
Developing Quickly
The general trend for telecomm network development is: from
wired to wireless; from narrowband to wideband; as well
as from voices services to data services. Data communications
is one kind of communication method and communication service
produced by the combination of computer and communications.
Along with the popularization of Internet, it is necessary
to develop the mobile communication to meet the demands
of multimedia. It is certain that the future information
network will take the data network as the center. In the
past two years, data communication and multimedia communication
became the key points of communication network development.
The data communication services increased annually according
to the index law. Its development is the trend of the times.
In world network services, the annual growth rate of telephone
services is 10%, while that of data service is 40%. It is
predicted that the rate of voice service and that of data
services will be at the same level in 2003. After that,
the data communications services will exceed telephone communication
service in quantity and dominate the market. For Asian countries,
although the traditional communication services are far
from saturated, the new telecomm services are still increasing
at high speed.
1.4.1 Development trend of IP service
In Asia, the access technology and services of Internet
were still the main points of the IP market in 2001. It
can be predicted that the business volume of IP would increase
substantially and there is a hope for it to approach or
exceed the business volume of circuit switching. For the
newly joined carriers, the unified transmission service,
IP facsimile, the calling center based on WEB, as well as
other services of such feature and value-added services
have become the important means to gain market shares.
1.4.2 Wideband market
It was forecasted that the demand for wideband in the world
would increase from 3Tb/s last year to 7Tb/s in 2001, and
hopefully to reach 2Tb/s next year. Considering that the
Asian telecomm markets are still monopolized by the state-owned
enterprises, there are many business opportunities in these
regions for the wideband suppliers.
1.4.3 3G market
3G mobile communications already became one development
trend of telecomm market. However in fact the real 3G commercialized
technology is not matured completely. The development of
future 3G markets still depends on the development of 2.5G
GPRS in the market to a certain extent. NTT DoCoMo in Japan
declared to postpone the opening of WCDMA, while Korea,
Singapore, Taiwan and Hong Kong are still waiting and seeing.
1.4.4 Mobile data market
At present, the main mobile data markets in Asia are still
SMS short message service. However, it holds only a small
portion of market shares, and will make up no more than
19% of the gross cellular communications income in 5 years.
For the development of WAP mobile phone, in addition to
the technical problems, the poor service content has already
become an important factor affecting its market development.
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